Weather forecast accuracy details for Merced, California

These are the one- to three-day out accuracy percentages for high temperature, low temperature, icon forecast precipitation (both rain and snow), and text forecast precipitation (both rain and snow). Temperature accuracy is the percentage of forecasts within three degrees. Precipitation accuracy is the percentage of correct forecasts. The forecasts are collected in the evening.

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Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Month (January)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
The Weather Channel   80.65% 87.10% 95.70% 95.70% 89.78%
Microsoft   88.04% 72.83% 96.51% 93.48% 87.71%
AerisWeather   77.42% 69.89% 96.77% 96.77% 85.22%
Foreca/Vaisala   79.57% 72.04% 93.55% 93.55% 84.68%
Weatherbit   74.19% 78.49% 92.47% 92.47% 84.41%
NWS Digital Forecast   72.04% 66.67% 95.70% 95.70% 82.53%
AccuWeather   78.16% 78.41% 80.46% 80.46% 79.37%
OpenWeather   64.52% 61.29% 92.47% 92.47% 77.69%
World Weather Online   63.44% 59.14% 81.72% 81.72% 71.51%
Pirate Weather   58.06% 43.01% 92.47% 92.47% 71.51%
Wetter   51.61% 64.52% 74.19% 59.14% 62.37%
Persistence   46.15% 46.75% 52.56% 52.56% 49.51%

Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Year (2023)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
The Weather Channel   88.31% 87.85% 93.97% 93.97% 91.03%
AccuWeather   90.52% 86.93% 93.36% 92.80% 90.90%
Microsoft   90.69% 86.42% 93.21% 93.21% 90.88%
Foreca/Vaisala   90.23% 85.11% 93.79% 93.79% 90.73%
AerisWeather   86.67% 86.12% 93.42% 93.42% 89.91%
NWS Digital Forecast   85.39% 84.56% 91.18% 91.18% 88.07%
Weatherbit   76.89% 81.95% 93.19% 93.19% 86.30%
Pirate Weather   59.98% 46.25% 93.13% 93.13% 73.12%
Wetter   49.77% 54.98% 91.23% 90.41% 71.60%
OpenWeather   50.68% 52.33% 91.69% 91.69% 71.60%
World Weather Online   48.42% 48.62% 90.45% 90.45% 69.48%
Persistence   48.05% 44.07% 80.05% 80.05% 63.06%

If this data feeds your inner weather geek, you'll probably be interested in the amazing amount of weather data available from ForecastWatch. Likewise, if you're looking to assess your own forecasting accuracy or would like to make more informed decisions about a weather provider you're considering or already use, we can provide data to help you.

The data here is calculated from forecasts and observations collected and analyzed by ForecastWatch. If you would like more information about the methods, scientific approach, and the quality controls employed to ensure the data and analyses are of the highest quality, please read this overview.

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