Weather forecast accuracy details for Chicago, Illinois

These are the one- to three-day out accuracy percentages for high temperature, low temperature, icon forecast precipitation (both rain and snow), and text forecast precipitation (both rain and snow). Temperature accuracy is the percentage of forecasts within three degrees. Precipitation accuracy is the percentage of correct forecasts. The forecasts are collected in the evening.

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Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Month (February)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
Weather Underground   75.00% 91.67% 84.52% 84.52% 83.93%
AccuWeather   82.67% 90.67% 81.33% 78.67% 83.33%
The Weather Channel   75.00% 90.48% 82.14% 82.14% 82.44%
AerisWeather   67.86% 83.33% 83.33% 83.33% 79.46%
NWS Digital Forecast   67.86% 84.52% 80.95% 80.95% 78.57%
Foreca/Vaisala   71.43% 77.38% 78.57% 78.57% 76.49%
Dark Sky   64.29% 76.19% 77.38% 77.38% 73.81%
Weather News   61.90% 48.81% 82.14% 82.14% 68.75%
Wetter   53.57% 50.00% 83.33% 83.33% 67.56%
World Weather Online   57.14% 53.57% 75.00% 75.00% 65.18%
OpenWeather   54.76% 33.33% 77.38% 77.38% 60.71%
Weatherbit   55.70% 11.25% 78.48% 78.48% 55.98%
Persistence   15.00% 20.00% 53.33% 53.33% 35.42%

Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Year (2022)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
The Weather Channel   79.00% 80.91% 88.31% 88.31% 84.13%
Weather Underground   79.09% 81.46% 87.49% 87.49% 83.88%
AccuWeather   76.02% 81.20% 84.44% 83.89% 81.39%
Foreca/Vaisala   73.61% 73.70% 86.30% 86.30% 79.98%
Dark Sky   69.13% 76.89% 86.30% 86.30% 79.66%
AerisWeather   68.77% 64.29% 84.02% 83.84% 75.23%
Wetter   59.18% 62.65% 82.92% 82.92% 71.92%
NWS Digital Forecast   70.11% 67.53% 74.26% 74.26% 71.54%
Weather News   58.06% 63.00% 80.04% 80.04% 70.28%
World Weather Online   57.35% 57.99% 77.90% 77.90% 67.79%
OpenWeather   61.83% 44.66% 79.63% 79.63% 66.44%
Weatherbit   58.87% 37.12% 77.25% 77.25% 62.62%
Persistence   26.89% 29.09% 52.58% 52.58% 40.28%

If this data feeds your inner weather geek, you'll probably be interested in the amazing amount of weather data available from ForecastWatch. Likewise, if you're looking to assess your own forecasting accuracy or would like to make more informed decisions about a weather provider you're considering or already use, we can provide data to help you.

The data here is calculated from forecasts and observations collected and analyzed by ForecastWatch. If you would like more information about the methods, scientific approach, and the quality controls employed to ensure the data and analyses are of the highest quality, please read this overview.

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